Layer: Erosion 2060 without Armor (ID: 109)

Parent Layer: Erosion

Name: Erosion 2060 without Armor

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Description: These zones represent cliff erosion hazard zones, incorporating site-specific historic trends in erosion, additional erosion caused by accelerating sea level rise, and (in the case of the “storm erosion hazard zones”) a safety buffer to account for along-shore variability in erosion rates (an indicator of extreme erosion events/block failures). The inland extent of the hazard zones represent projections of the potential future cliff edge for a given sea level rise scenario, planning horizon, and erosion scenario. Not all areas within the hazard zone are expected to erode to this extent by the specified planning horizon, but any location has the potential to erode to this extent for the selected scenario. This feature is one in a series of coastal flood and erosion hazard zones developed as part of the Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Study. For detailed documentation about how these hazard zones were developed, please see "Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment: Technical Methods Report," a report prepared by ESA PWA for The Monterey Bay Sanctuary Foundation in March 2014.Coastal ArmoringThe ESA coastal hazard projections do not account for the protections that existing coastal armoring provide. The areas identified as vulnerable by the original coastal erosion ESA GIS layers overestimate future hazard zones (as recognized within the ESA supporting documentation). A GIS layer of existing coastal armoring was referenced within this analysis to recognize areas where some level of protection currently exists.To account for the protections provided by coastal armor, properties and structures located behind those structures were removed from the 2030 erosion vulnerability analysis. In many cases, properties were reclassified as “protected” from coastal hazards by recognizing the protections those structures provided. Coastal flooding layers, however, did account for the height of coastal structures (hip walls etc.) and estimate wave overtopping and flooding that may occur with those structures in place. Some structures were therefore identified as protected from coastal erosion and vulnerable to coastal flooding. Because the life span of coastal infrastructure is limited, this vulnerability analysis assumes that all existing coastal protection infrastructure will fail and may need to be removed, replaced or significantly redesigned at some point between 2030 and 2060. Once these structures fail, erosion will accelerate and quickly meet projected inland migration rates (as documented at Stilwell Hall, Fort Ord) unless protective measures are implemented. Therefore, the vulnerability analysis for the 2060 and 2100 planning horizons assumes that current coastal armoring will no longer function and that the modeled hazard zone layers provided by the ESA technical team fully represent future hazards for these time horizons.ErosionCliff erosion and dune erosion were originally two sets of separate coastal hazard layers provided by ESA-PWA. Cliff erosion was characterized as erosion of mudstone cliff sides generally along the Santa Cruz County coastline. Whereas dune erosion was characterized as erosion of sandy slopes predominantly found along the Monterey Bay coastline. Since these two hazards were functionally different and spatially separate, it was decided to merge them into one set of ‘Erosion’ coastal hazard process layers using the ‘Merge’ tool within ArcGIS. Therefore, for each time horizon both cliff erosion and dune erosion impact zones were combined into a single erosion impact zone. The ‘erosion’ coastal hazard series was used throughout the analysis and included in the tables. Erosion hazard layers were modified as described above to account for the protections provided by existing seawalls through 2030. -------------------------------The name of this shapefile reflects the future scenarios and planning horizon that the hazard zone represents, as follows:"chz" + _ + erosion projection type +_+ future erosion scenario +_+ sea level rise scenario + planning horizon-------------------------------Erosion projection type:longterm - A continuation of historic erosion with additional erosion caused by sea level rise. Does not include potential impacts of a large storm.wstorm - Includes long-term erosion and the potential erosion of a large storm event (e.g. 100-year storm).-------------------------------Future erosion scenarios:nochange – A continuation of existing wave climatestormier – Increased storminess (doubling of storm intensity in a decade)-------------------------------Sea level rise scenarios:ec – Existing conditions (2010 water level)s1 – Low sea level rise (41 cm by 2100)s2 – Medium sea level rise (88 cm by 2100)s3 – High sea level rise (159 cm by 2100)-------------------------------Planning horizons:2010 (Existing conditions)203020602100--------------------------------Armoring:filenames ending in "a" include existing coastal armorning in the analysis

Copyright Text: Environmental Science Associates - Philip Williams Associates, Ltd. (ESA PWA), 2014 Central Coast Wetlands Group

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