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Layer: Coastal Flooding (96)

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Layer: Coastal Flooding Existing (97)

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Description: These hazard zones depict flooding caused by a coastal storm. The processes considered include (1) storm surge (a rise in the ocean water level caused by waves and pressure changes during a storm), (2) wave overtopping (waves running up over the beach and flowing into low-lying areas, calculated using the maximum historical wave conditions), (3) extreme lagoon water levels which can occur when lagoon mouths are closed and fill up during rainfall events, and (4) additional flooding caused by rising sea level in the future. This hazard zone also takes into account areas that are projected to erode in the future, sometimes leading to additional flooding through new hydraulic connections between the ocean and low-lying areas. These hazard zones do NOT consider upland fluvial (river) flooding and local rain/run-off drainage, which likely play a large part in coastal flooding, especially around coastal confluences where the creeks meet the ocean. There are two types of inundation areas: (1) areas that are clearly connected over the existing digital elevation through low topography, (2) and other low-lying areas that don’t have an apparent connection, as indicated by the digital elevation model, but are low-lying and flood prone from groundwater levels and any connections (culverts, underpasses) that are not captured by the digital elevation model. This difference is captured in the “Connection” attribute (either “connected to ocean over topography” or “connectivity uncertain”) in each rising tides dataset. We recommend these be mapped as separate colors. Coastal Storm FloodingThe ESA coastal storm flooding hazard layers included cliff areas predicted to have eroded during previous time horizons as being vulnerable to coastal flooding hazards, because the land elevation within those areas was assumed to have been reduced due to that cliff erosion. For example, sections of cliff in Santa Cruz that are projected to erode by 2060 (after coastal armoring is assumed to no longer function) are also projected to experience coastal flooding and wave over-topping within those newly eroded coastal areas. This is an accurate interpretation of the projected combined erosion and coastal flooding processes but introduces a confounding effect when attempting to evaluate just one hazard verses another, wherein erosion is overlapping coastal flooding in some areas. To remove this overlap, erosion processes were removed from the coastal hazard processes by trimming the coastal flooding layer along cliff areas to the 20ft topographic contour for all coastal hazard time horizons (2010, 2030, 2060, 2100). This allows coastal flooding to be separated from erosion and each can be evaluated individually.Vulnerable, Managed, and Protected (Coastal Storm Flooding and Rising Tides)Per the City's request, specific inundation areas in Santa Cruz were reclassified from 'Vulnerable' to either 'Managed' or 'Protected' for both rising tides and coastal storm flooding hazards. These areas included low-lying neighborhoods of lower Ocean Street, the beach flats, and some streets in downtown, as well as Neary Lagoon. These areas are already at risk of inundation during high-flow events of the San Lorenzo River (lower Ocean, beach flats, downtown) or from tidal forces (Neary Lagoon); which are currently mitigated by water control structures such as levees, flap gates, slide gates, and pumps. Classifications were assigned based on input provided by City Public Work's staff and vary depending on location and hazard type. The classifications are summarized as follows:Coastal FloodingBeach Flats = ManagedLower Ocean = ProtectedDowntown = ProtectedLagoon = ManagedRising TidesBeach Flats = ManagedLower Ocean = ManagedDowntown = Not ApplicableLagoon = ManagedIt is assumed that during coastal storm flooding Lower Ocean and Downtown will be protected by the levee, while the Lagoon and the beach flats are managed by water control structures. It should also be noted that in the 2060 and 2100 time horizons the beach flats area may become fully connected to the ocean over land flow, therefore in those scenarios those areas are classified as 'Vulnerable.' It is assumed that water control structures will mitigate tidal inundation to all low-lying areas within the city. When compiling hazard data layers for the combined threatened area within each time horizon, classifications of those areas listed above were chained to the coastal flooding attributes.The analysis was developed and results were generated taking those classifications into consideration, therefore enabling querying of these management structures separately from normally ‘Vulnerable' areas. -------------------------------This feature is one in a series of coastal flood and erosion hazard zones developed as part of the Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Study. For detailed documentation about how these hazard zones were developed, please see "Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment: Technical Methods Report," a report prepared by ESA PWA for The Monterey Bay Sanctuary Foundation in March 2014.-------------------------------The name of this shapefile reflects the future scenarios and planning horizon that the hazard zone represents, as follows:"coastal_floodhz" + _ + sea level rise scenario + planning horizon-------------------------------Sea level rise scenarios:ec – Existing conditions (2010 water level)s1 – Low sea level rise (41 cm by 2100)s2 – Medium sea level rise (88 cm by 2100)s3 – High sea level rise (159 cm by 2100)-------------------------------Planning horizons:2010 (Existing conditions)203020602100--------------------------------Armoring:filenames ending in "a" include existing coastal armorning in the analysis

Copyright Text: Environmental Science Associates - Philip Williams Associates, Ltd. (ESA PWA), 2014 Central Coast Wetlands Group

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Layer: Coastal Flooding 2030 (98)

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Description: These hazard zones depict flooding caused by a coastal storm. The processes considered include (1) storm surge (a rise in the ocean water level caused by waves and pressure changes during a storm), (2) wave overtopping (waves running up over the beach and flowing into low-lying areas, calculated using the maximum historical wave conditions), (3) extreme lagoon water levels which can occur when lagoon mouths are closed and fill up during rainfall events, and (4) additional flooding caused by rising sea level in the future. This hazard zone also takes into account areas that are projected to erode in the future, sometimes leading to additional flooding through new hydraulic connections between the ocean and low-lying areas. These hazard zones do NOT consider upland fluvial (river) flooding and local rain/run-off drainage, which likely play a large part in coastal flooding, especially around coastal confluences where the creeks meet the ocean. 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For example, sections of cliff in Santa Cruz that are projected to erode by 2060 (after coastal armoring is assumed to no longer function) are also projected to experience coastal flooding and wave over-topping within those newly eroded coastal areas. This is an accurate interpretation of the projected combined erosion and coastal flooding processes but introduces a confounding effect when attempting to evaluate just one hazard verses another, wherein erosion is overlapping coastal flooding in some areas. To remove this overlap, erosion processes were removed from the coastal hazard processes by trimming the coastal flooding layer along cliff areas to the 20ft topographic contour for all coastal hazard time horizons (2010, 2030, 2060, 2100). This allows coastal flooding to be separated from erosion and each can be evaluated individually.Vulnerable, Managed, and Protected (Coastal Storm Flooding and Rising Tides)Per the City's request, specific inundation areas in Santa Cruz were reclassified from 'Vulnerable' to either 'Managed' or 'Protected' for both rising tides and coastal storm flooding hazards. These areas included low-lying neighborhoods of lower Ocean Street, the beach flats, and some streets in downtown, as well as Neary Lagoon. These areas are already at risk of inundation during high-flow events of the San Lorenzo River (lower Ocean, beach flats, downtown) or from tidal forces (Neary Lagoon); which are currently mitigated by water control structures such as levees, flap gates, slide gates, and pumps. Classifications were assigned based on input provided by City Public Work's staff and vary depending on location and hazard type. The classifications are summarized as follows:Coastal FloodingBeach Flats = ManagedLower Ocean = ProtectedDowntown = ProtectedLagoon = ManagedRising TidesBeach Flats = ManagedLower Ocean = ManagedDowntown = Not ApplicableLagoon = ManagedIt is assumed that during coastal storm flooding Lower Ocean and Downtown will be protected by the levee, while the Lagoon and the beach flats are managed by water control structures. It should also be noted that in the 2060 and 2100 time horizons the beach flats area may become fully connected to the ocean over land flow, therefore in those scenarios those areas are classified as 'Vulnerable.' It is assumed that water control structures will mitigate tidal inundation to all low-lying areas within the city. When compiling hazard data layers for the combined threatened area within each time horizon, classifications of those areas listed above were chained to the coastal flooding attributes.The analysis was developed and results were generated taking those classifications into consideration, therefore enabling querying of these management structures separately from normally ‘Vulnerable' areas. -------------------------------This feature is one in a series of coastal flood and erosion hazard zones developed as part of the Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Study. For detailed documentation about how these hazard zones were developed, please see "Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment: Technical Methods Report," a report prepared by ESA PWA for The Monterey Bay Sanctuary Foundation in March 2014.-------------------------------The name of this shapefile reflects the future scenarios and planning horizon that the hazard zone represents, as follows:"coastal_floodhz" + _ + sea level rise scenario + planning horizon-------------------------------Sea level rise scenarios:ec – Existing conditions (2010 water level)s1 – Low sea level rise (41 cm by 2100)s2 – Medium sea level rise (88 cm by 2100)s3 – High sea level rise (159 cm by 2100)-------------------------------Planning horizons:2010 (Existing conditions)203020602100--------------------------------Armoring:filenames ending in "a" include existing coastal armorning in the analysis

Copyright Text: Environmental Science Associates - Philip Williams Associates, Ltd. (ESA PWA), 2014 Central Coast Wetlands Group

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Layer: Coastal Flooding 2060 (99)

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Description: These hazard zones depict flooding caused by a coastal storm. The processes considered include (1) storm surge (a rise in the ocean water level caused by waves and pressure changes during a storm), (2) wave overtopping (waves running up over the beach and flowing into low-lying areas, calculated using the maximum historical wave conditions), (3) extreme lagoon water levels which can occur when lagoon mouths are closed and fill up during rainfall events, and (4) additional flooding caused by rising sea level in the future. This hazard zone also takes into account areas that are projected to erode in the future, sometimes leading to additional flooding through new hydraulic connections between the ocean and low-lying areas. These hazard zones do NOT consider upland fluvial (river) flooding and local rain/run-off drainage, which likely play a large part in coastal flooding, especially around coastal confluences where the creeks meet the ocean. There are two types of inundation areas: (1) areas that are clearly connected over the existing digital elevation through low topography, (2) and other low-lying areas that don’t have an apparent connection, as indicated by the digital elevation model, but are low-lying and flood prone from groundwater levels and any connections (culverts, underpasses) that are not captured by the digital elevation model. This difference is captured in the “Connection” attribute (either “connected to ocean over topography” or “connectivity uncertain”) in each rising tides dataset. We recommend these be mapped as separate colors. Coastal Storm FloodingThe ESA coastal storm flooding hazard layers included cliff areas predicted to have eroded during previous time horizons as being vulnerable to coastal flooding hazards, because the land elevation within those areas was assumed to have been reduced due to that cliff erosion. For example, sections of cliff in Santa Cruz that are projected to erode by 2060 (after coastal armoring is assumed to no longer function) are also projected to experience coastal flooding and wave over-topping within those newly eroded coastal areas. This is an accurate interpretation of the projected combined erosion and coastal flooding processes but introduces a confounding effect when attempting to evaluate just one hazard verses another, wherein erosion is overlapping coastal flooding in some areas. To remove this overlap, erosion processes were removed from the coastal hazard processes by trimming the coastal flooding layer along cliff areas to the 20ft topographic contour for all coastal hazard time horizons (2010, 2030, 2060, 2100). This allows coastal flooding to be separated from erosion and each can be evaluated individually.Vulnerable, Managed, and Protected (Coastal Storm Flooding and Rising Tides)Per the City's request, specific inundation areas in Santa Cruz were reclassified from 'Vulnerable' to either 'Managed' or 'Protected' for both rising tides and coastal storm flooding hazards. These areas included low-lying neighborhoods of lower Ocean Street, the beach flats, and some streets in downtown, as well as Neary Lagoon. These areas are already at risk of inundation during high-flow events of the San Lorenzo River (lower Ocean, beach flats, downtown) or from tidal forces (Neary Lagoon); which are currently mitigated by water control structures such as levees, flap gates, slide gates, and pumps. Classifications were assigned based on input provided by City Public Work's staff and vary depending on location and hazard type. The classifications are summarized as follows:Coastal FloodingBeach Flats = ManagedLower Ocean = ProtectedDowntown = ProtectedLagoon = ManagedRising TidesBeach Flats = ManagedLower Ocean = ManagedDowntown = Not ApplicableLagoon = ManagedIt is assumed that during coastal storm flooding Lower Ocean and Downtown will be protected by the levee, while the Lagoon and the beach flats are managed by water control structures. It should also be noted that in the 2060 and 2100 time horizons the beach flats area may become fully connected to the ocean over land flow, therefore in those scenarios those areas are classified as 'Vulnerable.' It is assumed that water control structures will mitigate tidal inundation to all low-lying areas within the city. When compiling hazard data layers for the combined threatened area within each time horizon, classifications of those areas listed above were chained to the coastal flooding attributes.The analysis was developed and results were generated taking those classifications into consideration, therefore enabling querying of these management structures separately from normally ‘Vulnerable' areas. -------------------------------This feature is one in a series of coastal flood and erosion hazard zones developed as part of the Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Study. For detailed documentation about how these hazard zones were developed, please see "Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment: Technical Methods Report," a report prepared by ESA PWA for The Monterey Bay Sanctuary Foundation in March 2014.-------------------------------The name of this shapefile reflects the future scenarios and planning horizon that the hazard zone represents, as follows:"coastal_floodhz" + _ + sea level rise scenario + planning horizon-------------------------------Sea level rise scenarios:ec – Existing conditions (2010 water level)s1 – Low sea level rise (41 cm by 2100)s2 – Medium sea level rise (88 cm by 2100)s3 – High sea level rise (159 cm by 2100)-------------------------------Planning horizons:2010 (Existing conditions)203020602100--------------------------------Armoring:filenames ending in "a" include existing coastal armorning in the analysis

Copyright Text: Environmental Science Associates - Philip Williams Associates, Ltd. (ESA PWA), 2014 Central Coast Wetlands Group

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Layer: Coastal Flooding 2100 (100)

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Description: These hazard zones depict flooding caused by a coastal storm. The processes considered include (1) storm surge (a rise in the ocean water level caused by waves and pressure changes during a storm), (2) wave overtopping (waves running up over the beach and flowing into low-lying areas, calculated using the maximum historical wave conditions), (3) extreme lagoon water levels which can occur when lagoon mouths are closed and fill up during rainfall events, and (4) additional flooding caused by rising sea level in the future. This hazard zone also takes into account areas that are projected to erode in the future, sometimes leading to additional flooding through new hydraulic connections between the ocean and low-lying areas. These hazard zones do NOT consider upland fluvial (river) flooding and local rain/run-off drainage, which likely play a large part in coastal flooding, especially around coastal confluences where the creeks meet the ocean. There are two types of inundation areas: (1) areas that are clearly connected over the existing digital elevation through low topography, (2) and other low-lying areas that don’t have an apparent connection, as indicated by the digital elevation model, but are low-lying and flood prone from groundwater levels and any connections (culverts, underpasses) that are not captured by the digital elevation model. This difference is captured in the “Connection” attribute (either “connected to ocean over topography” or “connectivity uncertain”) in each rising tides dataset. We recommend these be mapped as separate colors. Coastal Storm FloodingThe ESA coastal storm flooding hazard layers included cliff areas predicted to have eroded during previous time horizons as being vulnerable to coastal flooding hazards, because the land elevation within those areas was assumed to have been reduced due to that cliff erosion. 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This allows coastal flooding to be separated from erosion and each can be evaluated individually.Vulnerable, Managed, and Protected (Coastal Storm Flooding and Rising Tides)Per the City's request, specific inundation areas in Santa Cruz were reclassified from 'Vulnerable' to either 'Managed' or 'Protected' for both rising tides and coastal storm flooding hazards. These areas included low-lying neighborhoods of lower Ocean Street, the beach flats, and some streets in downtown, as well as Neary Lagoon. These areas are already at risk of inundation during high-flow events of the San Lorenzo River (lower Ocean, beach flats, downtown) or from tidal forces (Neary Lagoon); which are currently mitigated by water control structures such as levees, flap gates, slide gates, and pumps. Classifications were assigned based on input provided by City Public Work's staff and vary depending on location and hazard type. The classifications are summarized as follows:Coastal FloodingBeach Flats = ManagedLower Ocean = ProtectedDowntown = ProtectedLagoon = ManagedRising TidesBeach Flats = ManagedLower Ocean = ManagedDowntown = Not ApplicableLagoon = ManagedIt is assumed that during coastal storm flooding Lower Ocean and Downtown will be protected by the levee, while the Lagoon and the beach flats are managed by water control structures. It should also be noted that in the 2060 and 2100 time horizons the beach flats area may become fully connected to the ocean over land flow, therefore in those scenarios those areas are classified as 'Vulnerable.' It is assumed that water control structures will mitigate tidal inundation to all low-lying areas within the city. When compiling hazard data layers for the combined threatened area within each time horizon, classifications of those areas listed above were chained to the coastal flooding attributes.The analysis was developed and results were generated taking those classifications into consideration, therefore enabling querying of these management structures separately from normally ‘Vulnerable' areas. -------------------------------This feature is one in a series of coastal flood and erosion hazard zones developed as part of the Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Study. For detailed documentation about how these hazard zones were developed, please see "Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment: Technical Methods Report," a report prepared by ESA PWA for The Monterey Bay Sanctuary Foundation in March 2014.-------------------------------The name of this shapefile reflects the future scenarios and planning horizon that the hazard zone represents, as follows:"coastal_floodhz" + _ + sea level rise scenario + planning horizon-------------------------------Sea level rise scenarios:ec – Existing conditions (2010 water level)s1 – Low sea level rise (41 cm by 2100)s2 – Medium sea level rise (88 cm by 2100)s3 – High sea level rise (159 cm by 2100)-------------------------------Planning horizons:2010 (Existing conditions)203020602100--------------------------------Armoring:filenames ending in "a" include existing coastal armorning in the analysis

Copyright Text: Environmental Science Associates - Philip Williams Associates, Ltd. (ESA PWA), 2014 Central Coast Wetlands Group

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Layer: Rising Tides (101)

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Description: These zones represent monthly tide inundation areas (areas that would be flooded by normal tides once per month, on average). The water level mapped in these inundation areas is the Extreme Monthly High Water (EMHW) level, which is a high water level that is reached approximately once a month. These zones do not, however, consider coastal erosion or wave overtopping, which may change the extent and depth of regular tidal flooding in the future. There are two types of inundation areas: (1) areas that are clearly connected over the existing digital elevation through low topography, (2) and other low-lying areas that don’t have an apparent connection, as indicated by the digital elevation model, but are low-lying and flood prone from groundwater levels and any connections (culverts, underpasses) that are not captured by the digital elevation model. This difference is captured in the “Connection” attribute (either “connected to ocean over topography” or “connectivity uncertain”) in each rising tides dataset. We recommend these be mapped as separate colors. Vulnerable, Managed, and Protected (Coastal Storm Flooding and Rising Tides)Per the City's request, specific inundation areas in Santa Cruz were reclassified from 'Vulnerable' to either 'Managed' or 'Protected' for both rising tides and coastal storm flooding hazards. These areas included low-lying neighborhoods of lower Ocean Street, the beach flats, and some streets in downtown, as well as Neary Lagoon. These areas are already at risk of inundation during high-flow events of the San Lorenzo River (lower Ocean, beach flats, downtown) or from tidal forces (Neary Lagoon); which are currently mitigated by water control structures such as levees, flap gates, slide gates, and pumps. Classifications were assigned based on input provided by City Public Work's staff and vary depending on location and hazard type. The classifications are summarized as follows:Coastal FloodingBeach Flats = ManagedLower Ocean = ProtectedDowntown = ProtectedLagoon = ManagedRising TidesBeach Flats = ManagedLower Ocean = ManagedDowntown = Not ApplicableLagoon = ManagedIt is assumed that during coastal storm flooding Lower Ocean and Downtown will be protected by the levee, while the Lagoon and the beach flats are managed by water control structures. It should also be noted that in the 2060 and 2100 time horizons the beach flats area may become fully connected to the ocean over land flow, therefore in those scenarios those areas are classified as 'Vulnerable.' It is assumed that water control structures will mitigate tidal inundation to all low-lying areas within the city. When compiling hazard data layers for the combined threatened area within each time horizon, classifications of those areas listed above were chained to the coastal flooding attributes.The analysis was developed and results were generated taking those classifications into consideration, therefore enabling querying of these management structures separately from normally ‘Vulnerable' areas. -------------------------------This feature is one in a series of coastal flood and erosion hazard zones developed as part of the Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Study. For detailed documentation about how these hazard zones were developed, please see "Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment: Technical Methods Report," a report prepared by ESA PWA for The Monterey Bay Sanctuary Foundation in March 2014.-------------------------------The name of this shapefile reflects the future scenarios and planning horizon that the hazard zone represents, as follows:"tide_area" + _ + sea level rise scenario + planning horizon-------------------------------Sea level rise scenarios:ec – Existing conditions (2010 water level)s1 – Low sea level rise (41 cm by 2100)s2 – Medium sea level rise (88 cm by 2100)s3 – High sea level rise (159 cm by 2100)-------------------------------Planning horizons:2010 (Existing conditions)203020602100--------------------------------Armoring:filenames ending in "a" include existing coastal armorning in the analysis

Copyright Text: Environmental Science Associates - Philip Williams Associates, Ltd. (ESA PWA), 2014 Central Coast Wetlands Group

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Copyright Text: Environmental Science Associates - Philip Williams Associates, Ltd. (ESA PWA), 2014 Central Coast Wetlands Group

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Description: These zones represent monthly tide inundation areas (areas that would be flooded by normal tides once per month, on average). The water level mapped in these inundation areas is the Extreme Monthly High Water (EMHW) level, which is a high water level that is reached approximately once a month. These zones do not, however, consider coastal erosion or wave overtopping, which may change the extent and depth of regular tidal flooding in the future. There are two types of inundation areas: (1) areas that are clearly connected over the existing digital elevation through low topography, (2) and other low-lying areas that don’t have an apparent connection, as indicated by the digital elevation model, but are low-lying and flood prone from groundwater levels and any connections (culverts, underpasses) that are not captured by the digital elevation model. This difference is captured in the “Connection” attribute (either “connected to ocean over topography” or “connectivity uncertain”) in each rising tides dataset. We recommend these be mapped as separate colors. Vulnerable, Managed, and Protected (Coastal Storm Flooding and Rising Tides)Per the City's request, specific inundation areas in Santa Cruz were reclassified from 'Vulnerable' to either 'Managed' or 'Protected' for both rising tides and coastal storm flooding hazards. These areas included low-lying neighborhoods of lower Ocean Street, the beach flats, and some streets in downtown, as well as Neary Lagoon. These areas are already at risk of inundation during high-flow events of the San Lorenzo River (lower Ocean, beach flats, downtown) or from tidal forces (Neary Lagoon); which are currently mitigated by water control structures such as levees, flap gates, slide gates, and pumps. Classifications were assigned based on input provided by City Public Work's staff and vary depending on location and hazard type. The classifications are summarized as follows:Coastal FloodingBeach Flats = ManagedLower Ocean = ProtectedDowntown = ProtectedLagoon = ManagedRising TidesBeach Flats = ManagedLower Ocean = ManagedDowntown = Not ApplicableLagoon = ManagedIt is assumed that during coastal storm flooding Lower Ocean and Downtown will be protected by the levee, while the Lagoon and the beach flats are managed by water control structures. It should also be noted that in the 2060 and 2100 time horizons the beach flats area may become fully connected to the ocean over land flow, therefore in those scenarios those areas are classified as 'Vulnerable.' It is assumed that water control structures will mitigate tidal inundation to all low-lying areas within the city. When compiling hazard data layers for the combined threatened area within each time horizon, classifications of those areas listed above were chained to the coastal flooding attributes.The analysis was developed and results were generated taking those classifications into consideration, therefore enabling querying of these management structures separately from normally ‘Vulnerable' areas. -------------------------------This feature is one in a series of coastal flood and erosion hazard zones developed as part of the Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Study. For detailed documentation about how these hazard zones were developed, please see "Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment: Technical Methods Report," a report prepared by ESA PWA for The Monterey Bay Sanctuary Foundation in March 2014.-------------------------------The name of this shapefile reflects the future scenarios and planning horizon that the hazard zone represents, as follows:"tide_area" + _ + sea level rise scenario + planning horizon-------------------------------Sea level rise scenarios:ec – Existing conditions (2010 water level)s1 – Low sea level rise (41 cm by 2100)s2 – Medium sea level rise (88 cm by 2100)s3 – High sea level rise (159 cm by 2100)-------------------------------Planning horizons:2010 (Existing conditions)203020602100--------------------------------Armoring:filenames ending in "a" include existing coastal armorning in the analysis

Copyright Text: Environmental Science Associates - Philip Williams Associates, Ltd. (ESA PWA), 2014 Central Coast Wetlands Group

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Description: These zones represent monthly tide inundation areas (areas that would be flooded by normal tides once per month, on average). The water level mapped in these inundation areas is the Extreme Monthly High Water (EMHW) level, which is a high water level that is reached approximately once a month. These zones do not, however, consider coastal erosion or wave overtopping, which may change the extent and depth of regular tidal flooding in the future. There are two types of inundation areas: (1) areas that are clearly connected over the existing digital elevation through low topography, (2) and other low-lying areas that don’t have an apparent connection, as indicated by the digital elevation model, but are low-lying and flood prone from groundwater levels and any connections (culverts, underpasses) that are not captured by the digital elevation model. This difference is captured in the “Connection” attribute (either “connected to ocean over topography” or “connectivity uncertain”) in each rising tides dataset. We recommend these be mapped as separate colors. Vulnerable, Managed, and Protected (Coastal Storm Flooding and Rising Tides)Per the City's request, specific inundation areas in Santa Cruz were reclassified from 'Vulnerable' to either 'Managed' or 'Protected' for both rising tides and coastal storm flooding hazards. These areas included low-lying neighborhoods of lower Ocean Street, the beach flats, and some streets in downtown, as well as Neary Lagoon. These areas are already at risk of inundation during high-flow events of the San Lorenzo River (lower Ocean, beach flats, downtown) or from tidal forces (Neary Lagoon); which are currently mitigated by water control structures such as levees, flap gates, slide gates, and pumps. Classifications were assigned based on input provided by City Public Work's staff and vary depending on location and hazard type. The classifications are summarized as follows:Coastal FloodingBeach Flats = ManagedLower Ocean = ProtectedDowntown = ProtectedLagoon = ManagedRising TidesBeach Flats = ManagedLower Ocean = ManagedDowntown = Not ApplicableLagoon = ManagedIt is assumed that during coastal storm flooding Lower Ocean and Downtown will be protected by the levee, while the Lagoon and the beach flats are managed by water control structures. It should also be noted that in the 2060 and 2100 time horizons the beach flats area may become fully connected to the ocean over land flow, therefore in those scenarios those areas are classified as 'Vulnerable.' It is assumed that water control structures will mitigate tidal inundation to all low-lying areas within the city. When compiling hazard data layers for the combined threatened area within each time horizon, classifications of those areas listed above were chained to the coastal flooding attributes.The analysis was developed and results were generated taking those classifications into consideration, therefore enabling querying of these management structures separately from normally ‘Vulnerable' areas. -------------------------------This feature is one in a series of coastal flood and erosion hazard zones developed as part of the Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Study. For detailed documentation about how these hazard zones were developed, please see "Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment: Technical Methods Report," a report prepared by ESA PWA for The Monterey Bay Sanctuary Foundation in March 2014.-------------------------------The name of this shapefile reflects the future scenarios and planning horizon that the hazard zone represents, as follows:"tide_area" + _ + sea level rise scenario + planning horizon-------------------------------Sea level rise scenarios:ec – Existing conditions (2010 water level)s1 – Low sea level rise (41 cm by 2100)s2 – Medium sea level rise (88 cm by 2100)s3 – High sea level rise (159 cm by 2100)-------------------------------Planning horizons:2010 (Existing conditions)203020602100--------------------------------Armoring:filenames ending in "a" include existing coastal armorning in the analysis

Copyright Text: Environmental Science Associates - Philip Williams Associates, Ltd. (ESA PWA), 2014 Central Coast Wetlands Group

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Layer: Erosion (106)

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Layer: Erosion Existing (107)

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Description: These zones represent future dune (sandy beach) erosion hazard zones, incorporating site-specific historic trends in erosion, additional erosion caused by accelerating sea level rise, and (in the case of the “storm erosion hazard zones”) the potential erosion impact of a large storm wave event. The inland extent of the hazard zones represent projections of the potential future crest of the dunes for a given sea level rise scenario, planning horizon, and erosion scenario. Not all areas within the hazard zone are expected to erode to this extent by the specified planning horizon, but any location has the potential to erode to this extent for the selected scenario. This feature is one in a series of coastal flood and erosion hazard zones developed as part of the Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Study. For detailed documentation about how these hazard zones were developed, please see "Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment: Technical Methods Report," a report prepared by ESA PWA for The Monterey Bay Sanctuary Foundation in March 2014.Coastal ArmoringThe ESA coastal hazard projections do not account for the protections that existing coastal armoring provide. The areas identified as vulnerable by the original coastal erosion ESA GIS layers overestimate future hazard zones (as recognized within the ESA supporting documentation). A GIS layer of existing coastal armoring was referenced within this analysis to recognize areas where some level of protection currently exists.To account for the protections provided by coastal armor, properties and structures located behind those structures were removed from the 2030 erosion vulnerability analysis. In many cases, properties were reclassified as “protected” from coastal hazards by recognizing the protections those structures provided. Coastal flooding layers, however, did account for the height of coastal structures (hip walls etc.) and estimate wave overtopping and flooding that may occur with those structures in place. Some structures were therefore identified as protected from coastal erosion and vulnerable to coastal flooding. Because the life span of coastal infrastructure is limited, this vulnerability analysis assumes that all existing coastal protection infrastructure will fail and may need to be removed, replaced or significantly redesigned at some point between 2030 and 2060. Once these structures fail, erosion will accelerate and quickly meet projected inland migration rates (as documented at Stilwell Hall, Fort Ord) unless protective measures are implemented. Therefore, the vulnerability analysis for the 2060 and 2100 planning horizons assumes that current coastal armoring will no longer function and that the modeled hazard zone layers provided by the ESA technical team fully represent future hazards for these time horizons.ErosionCliff erosion and dune erosion were originally two sets of separate coastal hazard layers provided by ESA-PWA. Cliff erosion was characterized as erosion of mudstone cliff sides generally along the Santa Cruz County coastline. Whereas dune erosion was characterized as erosion of sandy slopes predominantly found along the Monterey Bay coastline. Since these two hazards were functionally different and spatially separate, it was decided to merge them into one set of ‘Erosion’ coastal hazard process layers using the ‘Merge’ tool within ArcGIS. Therefore, for each time horizon both cliff erosion and dune erosion impact zones were combined into a single erosion impact zone. The ‘erosion’ coastal hazard series was used throughout the analysis and included in the tables. Erosion hazard layers were modified as described above to account for the protections provided by existing seawalls through 2030. -------------------------------The name of this shapefile reflects the future scenarios and planning horizon that the hazard zone represents, as follows:"dhz" + _ + erosion projection type +_+ future erosion scenario +_+ sea level rise scenario + planning horizon-------------------------------Erosion projection type:longterm - A continuation of historic erosion with additional erosion caused by sea level rise. Does not include potential impacts of a large storm.wstorm - Includes long-term erosion and the potential erosion of a large storm event (e.g. 100-year storm).-------------------------------Future erosion scenarios:nochange – A continuation of existing wave climate and sand miningstopmining – Stop sand mining (only applies to southern Monterey Bay)stormier – Increased storminess (doubling of El Niño storm impacts in a decade)-------------------------------Sea level rise scenarios:ec – Existing conditions (2010 water level)s1 – Low sea level rise (41 cm by 2100)s2 – Medium sea level rise (88 cm by 2100)s3 – High sea level rise (159 cm by 2100)-------------------------------Planning horizons:2010 (Existing conditions)203020602100--------------------------------Armoring:filenames ending in "a" include existing coastal armorning in the analysis

Copyright Text: Environmental Science Associates - Philip Williams Associates, Ltd. (ESA PWA), 2014 Central Coast Wetlands Group

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Layer: Erosion 2030 with Armor (108)

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Description: These zones represent future dune (sandy beach) erosion hazard zones, incorporating site-specific historic trends in erosion, additional erosion caused by accelerating sea level rise, and (in the case of the “storm erosion hazard zones”) the potential erosion impact of a large storm wave event. The inland extent of the hazard zones represent projections of the potential future crest of the dunes for a given sea level rise scenario, planning horizon, and erosion scenario. Not all areas within the hazard zone are expected to erode to this extent by the specified planning horizon, but any location has the potential to erode to this extent for the selected scenario. This feature is one in a series of coastal flood and erosion hazard zones developed as part of the Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Study. For detailed documentation about how these hazard zones were developed, please see "Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment: Technical Methods Report," a report prepared by ESA PWA for The Monterey Bay Sanctuary Foundation in March 2014.Coastal ArmoringThe ESA coastal hazard projections do not account for the protections that existing coastal armoring provide. The areas identified as vulnerable by the original coastal erosion ESA GIS layers overestimate future hazard zones (as recognized within the ESA supporting documentation). A GIS layer of existing coastal armoring was referenced within this analysis to recognize areas where some level of protection currently exists.To account for the protections provided by coastal armor, properties and structures located behind those structures were removed from the 2030 erosion vulnerability analysis. In many cases, properties were reclassified as “protected” from coastal hazards by recognizing the protections those structures provided. Coastal flooding layers, however, did account for the height of coastal structures (hip walls etc.) and estimate wave overtopping and flooding that may occur with those structures in place. Some structures were therefore identified as protected from coastal erosion and vulnerable to coastal flooding. Because the life span of coastal infrastructure is limited, this vulnerability analysis assumes that all existing coastal protection infrastructure will fail and may need to be removed, replaced or significantly redesigned at some point between 2030 and 2060. Once these structures fail, erosion will accelerate and quickly meet projected inland migration rates (as documented at Stilwell Hall, Fort Ord) unless protective measures are implemented. Therefore, the vulnerability analysis for the 2060 and 2100 planning horizons assumes that current coastal armoring will no longer function and that the modeled hazard zone layers provided by the ESA technical team fully represent future hazards for these time horizons.ErosionCliff erosion and dune erosion were originally two sets of separate coastal hazard layers provided by ESA-PWA. Cliff erosion was characterized as erosion of mudstone cliff sides generally along the Santa Cruz County coastline. Whereas dune erosion was characterized as erosion of sandy slopes predominantly found along the Monterey Bay coastline. Since these two hazards were functionally different and spatially separate, it was decided to merge them into one set of ‘Erosion’ coastal hazard process layers using the ‘Merge’ tool within ArcGIS. Therefore, for each time horizon both cliff erosion and dune erosion impact zones were combined into a single erosion impact zone. The ‘erosion’ coastal hazard series was used throughout the analysis and included in the tables. Erosion hazard layers were modified as described above to account for the protections provided by existing seawalls through 2030. -------------------------------The name of this shapefile reflects the future scenarios and planning horizon that the hazard zone represents, as follows:"dhz" + _ + erosion projection type +_+ future erosion scenario +_+ sea level rise scenario + planning horizon-------------------------------Erosion projection type:longterm - A continuation of historic erosion with additional erosion caused by sea level rise. Does not include potential impacts of a large storm.wstorm - Includes long-term erosion and the potential erosion of a large storm event (e.g. 100-year storm).-------------------------------Future erosion scenarios:nochange – A continuation of existing wave climate and sand miningstopmining – Stop sand mining (only applies to southern Monterey Bay)stormier – Increased storminess (doubling of El Niño storm impacts in a decade)-------------------------------Sea level rise scenarios:ec – Existing conditions (2010 water level)s1 – Low sea level rise (41 cm by 2100)s2 – Medium sea level rise (88 cm by 2100)s3 – High sea level rise (159 cm by 2100)-------------------------------Planning horizons:2010 (Existing conditions)203020602100--------------------------------Armoring:filenames ending in "a" include existing coastal armorning in the analysis

Copyright Text: Environmental Science Associates - Philip Williams Associates, Ltd. (ESA PWA), 2014 Central Coast Wetlands Group

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Description: These zones represent cliff erosion hazard zones, incorporating site-specific historic trends in erosion, additional erosion caused by accelerating sea level rise, and (in the case of the “storm erosion hazard zones”) a safety buffer to account for along-shore variability in erosion rates (an indicator of extreme erosion events/block failures). The inland extent of the hazard zones represent projections of the potential future cliff edge for a given sea level rise scenario, planning horizon, and erosion scenario. Not all areas within the hazard zone are expected to erode to this extent by the specified planning horizon, but any location has the potential to erode to this extent for the selected scenario. This feature is one in a series of coastal flood and erosion hazard zones developed as part of the Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Study. For detailed documentation about how these hazard zones were developed, please see "Monterey Bay Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment: Technical Methods Report," a report prepared by ESA PWA for The Monterey Bay Sanctuary Foundation in March 2014.Coastal ArmoringThe ESA coastal hazard projections do not account for the protections that existing coastal armoring provide. The areas identified as vulnerable by the original coastal erosion ESA GIS layers overestimate future hazard zones (as recognized within the ESA supporting documentation). A GIS layer of existing coastal armoring was referenced within this analysis to recognize areas where some level of protection currently exists.To account for the protections provided by coastal armor, properties and structures located behind those structures were removed from the 2030 erosion vulnerability analysis. In many cases, properties were reclassified as “protected” from coastal hazards by recognizing the protections those structures provided. Coastal flooding layers, however, did account for the height of coastal structures (hip walls etc.) and estimate wave overtopping and flooding that may occur with those structures in place. Some structures were therefore identified as protected from coastal erosion and vulnerable to coastal flooding. Because the life span of coastal infrastructure is limited, this vulnerability analysis assumes that all existing coastal protection infrastructure will fail and may need to be removed, replaced or significantly redesigned at some point between 2030 and 2060. Once these structures fail, erosion will accelerate and quickly meet projected inland migration rates (as documented at Stilwell Hall, Fort Ord) unless protective measures are implemented. Therefore, the vulnerability analysis for the 2060 and 2100 planning horizons assumes that current coastal armoring will no longer function and that the modeled hazard zone layers provided by the ESA technical team fully represent future hazards for these time horizons.ErosionCliff erosion and dune erosion were originally two sets of separate coastal hazard layers provided by ESA-PWA. Cliff erosion was characterized as erosion of mudstone cliff sides generally along the Santa Cruz County coastline. Whereas dune erosion was characterized as erosion of sandy slopes predominantly found along the Monterey Bay coastline. Since these two hazards were functionally different and spatially separate, it was decided to merge them into one set of ‘Erosion’ coastal hazard process layers using the ‘Merge’ tool within ArcGIS. Therefore, for each time horizon both cliff erosion and dune erosion impact zones were combined into a single erosion impact zone. The ‘erosion’ coastal hazard series was used throughout the analysis and included in the tables. Erosion hazard layers were modified as described above to account for the protections provided by existing seawalls through 2030. -------------------------------The name of this shapefile reflects the future scenarios and planning horizon that the hazard zone represents, as follows:"chz" + _ + erosion projection type +_+ future erosion scenario +_+ sea level rise scenario + planning horizon-------------------------------Erosion projection type:longterm - A continuation of historic erosion with additional erosion caused by sea level rise. Does not include potential impacts of a large storm.wstorm - Includes long-term erosion and the potential erosion of a large storm event (e.g. 100-year storm).-------------------------------Future erosion scenarios:nochange – A continuation of existing wave climatestormier – Increased storminess (doubling of storm intensity in a decade)-------------------------------Sea level rise scenarios:ec – Existing conditions (2010 water level)s1 – Low sea level rise (41 cm by 2100)s2 – Medium sea level rise (88 cm by 2100)s3 – High sea level rise (159 cm by 2100)-------------------------------Planning horizons:2010 (Existing conditions)203020602100--------------------------------Armoring:filenames ending in "a" include existing coastal armorning in the analysis

Copyright Text: Environmental Science Associates - Philip Williams Associates, Ltd. (ESA PWA), 2014 Central Coast Wetlands Group

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Copyright Text: Environmental Science Associates - Philip Williams Associates, Ltd. (ESA PWA), 2014 Central Coast Wetlands Group

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